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Agreed. I edited a bit about Hybrids / Electric motors in there while you were typing that response up.
Hybrid Engines really change the game, as do full electrics. I still am convinced that a gearbox is superior by the way (ie: Toyota Prius or Ford Escape designs, as well as Porsche Tycan for a full EV). But electric engines have many more “tricks” available that remove the need of a manual clutch, wet clutch, or other needs of older ICE designs.
ICE still is overall cheaper. But if Hybrid becomes the new standard, then manuals are fully dead. These eCVT / planetary gear system magic is really incredible… and no need for a clutch (or wet-clutch) either.
I personally feel like overpowered EVs will be seen as wasteful, especially because we’ve reached the limitation on how cheap Li-ion can get. Cheaper batteries are possible with future chemistries (Sodium-ion, Silicon+Li-ion , etc. etc.) but not dramatically so. I don’t think it will be possible to scale up mass production of the complex chemical processes needed to convert acid from mountains into Lithium. And recycling of Lithium remains fraught with problems.
Of course, I could be wrong and maybe these problems will be solved soon. But for the near future, assuming the environmental costs of Li-ion remain roughly the same as now, there’s a bigger need to shrink down battery/motors and therefore use gears to handle a wider range of driving speeds.
The cheapest material moving forward will remain steel. Therefore any “steel-based” solution (like a gearbox) will remain the king of overall efficiency and effectiveness of car designs. Copper, Lithium, Cobalt, Silicon, Sodium… many other metals can build up more complex behaviors (EVs), but ugggh. They’re just not as cheap or effective as what steel can do.
A lot of the CVTs I was thinking about when I wrote that post were eCVTs like the Prius Prime.
I didn’t realize that eCVT for Prius Prime is very different than… other… CVTs. There’s probably more kinds of CVTs out there than any other transmission.
Prius Prime has two powerful electric motors (!!) for spinning two different parts of the planetary gear system, +1 ICE engine (so 3x total powered inputs) to the power split device. Toyota calls it eCVT, because CVT is emulated by computers controlling the 3x inputs. When one of the electric motors spins in reverse, it increases the effective gear ratio of the other parts of the power-split device, leading to a feeling of instant torque that’s powered by the electric motor.
Honda Accord’s eCVT is completely different, as I’ve discovered through discussion later down with another poster. Honda’s Hybrid is closer to a pure electrical system and… they say eCVT for some insane reason but its just an electric motor really.
So its different than what other car manufacturers called a CVT. I didn’t realize how many kinds of CVTs there were today when I wrote that post.