"The new study adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not-too-distant future," said one scientist. "We will ignore this at our peril."
the idea of northern europe ending up in a deep freeze while much of the rest of the world bakes is not new. these scenarios have been modeled for decades. I remember over 20 years ago, while naively considering “escape options”, learning about the AMOC, the great conveyer and other modeled outcomes.
long story short… there is no escape. we either fix the fundamental problems in our societies (and adapt to the damage we have already done) or it all collapses into a probable species ending spiral.
We can’t say because there are interconnected complex systems that will react to each other as they change, and climate science is not mature enough to understand these interactions fully. We are also experiencing conditions with no paleoloclimatic equivalent.
The paper did not include global warming in the simulations - it explores the direct effects of the AMOC system, but not how these interact with climate change. So it does not attempt to answer this question.
AMOC is a heat transport system (basically cooling the SH while warming the NH) and will have few effects on Earth’s Energy Imbalance, meaning there will continue to be a net increase of heat in the system. Paired with AMOC shutdown, this will likely fuel more climate change (such as changed rainfall patterns) and weather volatility.
So does that mean you can’t say because we don’t know the actual effects? They’re unpredictable?
…but isn’t the main theory about the AMOC shutting down that it may bring on an ice age?
the idea of northern europe ending up in a deep freeze while much of the rest of the world bakes is not new. these scenarios have been modeled for decades. I remember over 20 years ago, while naively considering “escape options”, learning about the AMOC, the great conveyer and other modeled outcomes.
long story short… there is no escape. we either fix the fundamental problems in our societies (and adapt to the damage we have already done) or it all collapses into a probable species ending spiral.
We can’t say because there are interconnected complex systems that will react to each other as they change, and climate science is not mature enough to understand these interactions fully. We are also experiencing conditions with no paleoloclimatic equivalent.
The paper did not include global warming in the simulations - it explores the direct effects of the AMOC system, but not how these interact with climate change. So it does not attempt to answer this question.
AMOC is a heat transport system (basically cooling the SH while warming the NH) and will have few effects on Earth’s Energy Imbalance, meaning there will continue to be a net increase of heat in the system. Paired with AMOC shutdown, this will likely fuel more climate change (such as changed rainfall patterns) and weather volatility.