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The folks who are going to use Linux for their desktops already are. The folks who never were, never have.
On the consumer front, I think the wild card is gamers. There are many that care more about their games than their desktop.
If people come for the gaming and stay for the desktop, we may see a real surge in Linux desktop share.
More and more of what we use is cross-platform as well. There are fewer and fewer apps tying us to one desktop or the other.
It is getting easier to move. The question is why to move. I think gaming could be the driver.